Why the Brewers will win the NL Central

In the NL Central division of baseball, there have been new division champs every year. Reds in 2012, Cubs in 2016, a three-peat of titles for the Cardinals in 2013-2015, and the Brewers only division title in 2011. The Cubbies won it all last year and per ESPN; Chicago has about a 60% chance of winning the NL Central again. But based on the current records and win streaks, 2017 seems to be the year of the Brewers. Here are a couple of pieces of evidence that proves the Brew Crew will win the division.


Fast Starts

In 7 of the Brewers last nine games, they have been able to score first. This is due to not making mistakes in defense, while also having patience in the count either ahead or behind. This gives their batters an opportunity to choose their pitch and get hits. Therefore, most of the time, the Brew Crew will a comfortable lead early in the game.

Big League Leads

In 6 of their last 7, Milwaukee has had leads of as much as 4 or more, In two of those games, they have scored 8 or more. One reason for this is long innings in which thee are base situations such as man on, 1 RISP (runner in scoring position) either at second or third base, two men on with a RISP, 2 RISP at second and third, and bases loaded. This gives the Brewers to hit in RBI's and XBH's (extra base hits). Therefore, Milwaukee would score more than one run in an inning plus (if leading by more than 2), there will most likely be either more RBI's and make the bases loaded with a walk drawn; or a run would come in due to a walk.

Insurance and go-ahead runs

An insurance run is a run scored by a team with a lead equal to or higher than 2. The Brewers had their last 4 out of 8 games where they either scored an insurance run to secure the lead or score a go ahead run to take the lead that is not a walk off. Thus, by scoring insurance runs and go ahead runs, the Brew Crew is more likely to win then if they do not score insurance runs. Therefore, if the Brewers allow a comeback, this increases their chances of losing.

These are the three factors that the Brewers must execute if they are going to beat the Cubs and their chances of winning the division and so on. If not, then they will be at the bottom of the NL Central for another year and the Cubs will be striving for the division if otherwise.

This year will not be a "there's always next year" kind of year. 




Martin Howe2 Comments